A Look at NVDA 6 month chart ahead of earnings tomorrow [FREE NO PAY NO EMAIL]
NVIDIA is heading into earnings at a technically critical inflection point, with price action repeatedly stalling in the 194 resistance zone. This level has acted as a supply wall over multiple tests, rejecting price back toward the 180 area each time. From an Elliott Wave perspective, that behavior suggests the stock may still be trapped in a corrective structure rather than beginning a sustained impulsive advance.
The repeated failure at 194 implies the market is treating that zone as the upper boundary of a larger Wave B or Wave 4 consolidation. Each rally into that region has lacked impulsive follow-through and has instead produced sharp, overlapping declines — classic corrective price action. That keeps the door open for one more leg down to complete a full C wave. Using typical Fibonacci relationships, a measured C wave targeting the 1.0–1.236 extension of Wave A would project into the 155–160 region. That area also aligns with prior demand zones and would represent a deeper but technically clean correction before any larger bullish cycle resumes.
Earnings events often serve as the catalyst that resolves these types of range-bound structures. If the report disappoints — whether through guidance, margins, or any sign of slowing AI data center demand — the market could use that as the trigger to finally break the 180 support shelf. A decisive loss of 180 would likely accelerate downside momentum as trapped longs exit and short sellers press for completion of the C wave. In that scenario, the 170 level would be an interim support, but the higher-probability technical magnet remains the 155–160 region where a larger degree Wave 2 could terminate.
On the bullish side, the technical requirement is very clear: NVIDIA must break and hold above 200 on strong volume. A simple intraday spike is not sufficient; the stock needs a decisive impulsive move that converts the 194–200 supply zone into support. That would signal that the corrective structure has already ended and that the market is beginning a higher-degree Wave 3 advance. In Elliott Wave terms, Wave 3s are characterized by expanding volume, strong breadth, and minimal overlap — the opposite of the choppy price action seen recently.
A confirmed breakout above 200 would also invalidate the immediate C-wave downside count and open the path toward new all-time highs. Once Wave 3 is underway, typical targets extend to 1.618 times the length of Wave 1, which would imply a substantially higher long-term trajectory rather than another prolonged consolidation.
In summary, NVIDIA is coiled between two clearly defined technical outcomes ahead of earnings. Failure at 194 followed by a break of 180 favors a final C-wave decline toward 155–160, completing a larger corrective phase. Conversely, a strong earnings reaction that propels price above 200 and holds it as support would signal the birth of a long-term Wave 3 and a resumption of the primary uptrend. The earnings reaction will likely determine which of these mutually exclusive wave counts becomes the dominant path.