Apple Inc. has been one of the cleanest large-cap Elliott Wave structures over the past five years, offering a near textbook impulsive cycle from the COVID-era lows to present day price action.

This technical analysis is supported by our sponsors. Checking them out helps keep these deep dives free and supports the ongoing development of my Wave 3 proprietary tools. Thanks for being part of the journey!

Is your growth in-line with your peers in B2B SaaS & AI? 

Benchmark yourself against actual billings data for Maxio’s 2000+ global customers. 

Key takeaways from the report: 

Download the Report

The primary Wave 1 advance began in 2020, launching from approximately $35 and extending all the way to $183. This move represented a powerful impulsive rally driven by liquidity, retail participation, and Apple’s dominance in both hardware and services. Structurally, this leg checks nearly every box of a classic Wave 1: strong breadth, persistent higher highs, and minimal deep retracements.

Wave 2 followed with a corrective decline from $183 down to $124. This pullback was sharp but ultimately healthy, retracing a significant portion of the prior move while holding key Fibonacci support levels. Importantly, sentiment during this phase shifted bearish enough to reset positioning — a necessary condition before a larger Wave 3 expansion.

Now, all evidence suggests AAPL is either in the middle stages of Wave 3 or just entering a more aggressive “3 of 3” extension — typically the most explosive phase in Elliott Wave theory. This is where momentum accelerates, fundamentals appear strongest, and institutional flows dominate.

Using standard Fibonacci extensions, a typical Wave 3 projection at 1.618 times Wave 1 gives a target near $363. This alone would represent a substantial continuation of the long-term uptrend. However, if the market is indeed entering a nested 3 of 3 scenario, the upside expands significantly. In that case, a more aggressive projection lands in the $390–$400 range.

This higher target zone aligns with the psychology of Wave 3 extensions — where price often overshoots expectations as buyers chase strength and short sellers are forced to cover. It’s also consistent with Apple’s continued dominance in cash flow, buybacks, and ecosystem expansion.

The key confirmation level to watch is continued higher highs with strong momentum and shallow pullbacks. Any deep retracement back toward the $124–$150 region would challenge the current bullish count, but as long as price holds above prior major support, the Wave 3 thesis remains intact.

Analysis supported by today’s sponsors. Please take a moment to check them out—it’s the best way to support the channel and keep these real-time alerts coming

AI-powered bots aren’t just logging in anymore. They’re mimicking real users, slipping past identity checks, and scaling attacks faster than ever.

Thousands of companies worldwide trust hCaptcha to protect their online services from automated threats while preserving user privacy.

Now is the time to take control of your security.

Book a demo today.

NASDAQ Composite is showing a similarly constructive structure, though with a critical fork in interpretation that will determine whether the next move is strong — or explosive.

From the 20,700 low, the index advanced to 24,519 in what appears to be a completed 1-2-3 sequence. This move established a strong bullish trend, supported by leadership in mega-cap tech and semiconductors.

Following that peak, the pullback to 24,209 is currently labeled as Wave 4 under the primary count. This retracement is relatively shallow, which is typical in strong trending markets where buyers step in quickly.

If this interpretation holds and the market is now entering Wave 5, Fibonacci projections give us two key targets:

These levels represent a logical completion zone for a five-wave impulse under the current structure.

However, there is an alternative — and far more bullish — scenario. If the decline from 24,519 to 24,209 was not a Wave 4, but instead a Wave 2, then the market has just entered a Wave 3. And as Elliott Wave traders know, Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in the sequence.

Under this bullish reinterpretation, the upside target dramatically increases to approximately 30,388 based on a 1.618 extension of the broader structure.

From AI and cloud to DevOps and security — WeAreDevelopers World Congress brings the entire modern stack to San Jose. 500+ speakers. 10,000+ developers. One epic September. Use code GITPUSH26 for 10% off.

Secure Your Pass

Both AAPL and the NASDAQ are at pivotal inflection points. The difference between a standard continuation and a full Wave 3 expansion is massive in terms of upside potential.

For AAPL, the key range is $363 vs $390–$400.
For the NASDAQ, it’s 25,500–26,600 vs a breakout toward 30,000+.

The market is coiled in a position where confirmation will likely come quickly — and when it does, the move could be fast, aggressive, and difficult to chase.

This is exactly the kind of setup where patience meets opportunity.