BTC & DAX Elliott Wave Outlook: Major Inflection Points Approaching

The current structure in Bitcoin is shaping up to be one of the most important technical junctures in its recent cycle. From an Elliott Wave perspective, there is a strong case that BTC has completed a full ABC zigzag correction for Wave 2, with the critical .618 retracement level near $50,000 holding firmly as support. That level is not just technical noise—it represents a classic Fibonacci retracement zone where strong hands tend to step in during bullish cycles.

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What’s particularly notable about the recent price action is the formation of a rounded bottom. This type of structure often signals accumulation rather than panic-driven volatility. Combined with the emerging possibility of a cup-and-handle formation, the technical backdrop is shifting from corrective to constructive. These patterns typically precede continuation moves, especially when they form after a completed Wave 2.

However, confirmation is everything. While BTC has already cleared $78,000, the real inflection point lies higher. The $88,000 level is the key threshold to watch. This level aligns with the .786 retracement of the prior Wave C decline from $98,000 down to $60,000. In Elliott Wave terms, reclaiming the .786 level strongly suggests that the correction is complete and that a new impulsive phase may be underway.

A decisive break above $88,000 would significantly increase the probability that BTC has bottomed and is transitioning into Wave 3. If price continues and reclaims the $98,000 high, that would serve as even stronger confirmation, effectively invalidating the bearish structure and solidifying the bullish count.

Looking ahead, the real trigger for a powerful expansion phase is $112,000. If BTC can break and sustain above that level in the coming months, it would likely confirm the onset of a long-term Wave 3. Based on standard Fibonacci extensions, a 1.618 projection of Wave 1 would target approximately $235,000. While that may sound aggressive, it’s important to remember that Wave 3 is typically the strongest and most extended wave in an Elliott Wave cycle, often driven by broad market participation and institutional inflows.

That said, failure to break $88,000 would keep BTC in a state of uncertainty. It could imply a more complex corrective structure or even a prolonged consolidation before the next leg higher. In that scenario, patience becomes key, as premature bullish positioning could be exposed to further downside or sideways chop.

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Shifting to Europe, the DAX presents a similarly compelling Elliott Wave structure, albeit at a different stage of development. The move from 11,900 to 23,475 appears to have completed a full impulsive Wave 1. This rally was strong, extended, and consistent with the characteristics of a primary bullish wave.

The subsequent decline from 23,475 to approximately 18,500 fits well as a Wave 2 correction. The depth and structure of this pullback align with typical Wave 2 behavior, which often retraces a significant portion of Wave 1 before the market transitions into a much stronger Wave 3.

Now, the focus shifts to confirmation. For the DAX, the key breakout level is 25,000. A sustained move above this level would indicate that the index has not only recovered from its Wave 2 correction but is also initiating a new impulsive phase higher. This would mark the beginning of a long-term Wave 3.

If that breakout occurs, the upside potential becomes substantial. Using a 1.618 extension of Wave 1, the DAX would target approximately 37,228. This projection is consistent with the explosive nature of Wave 3 moves, which are often fueled by improving economic sentiment, earnings growth, and increased investor participation.

However, just like BTC, confirmation is critical. Until the DAX clears 25,000 decisively, there remains the possibility of continued consolidation or a more complex corrective pattern. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and false breakouts can occur, especially near key psychological levels.

Final Thoughts

Both BTC and the DAX are approaching pivotal breakout zones that could define their trajectories for months—or even years—to come. In both cases, the larger bullish structures remain intact, but confirmation levels must be respected.

For BTC, the roadmap is clear: $88K → $98K → $112K.
For the DAX: $25,000 is the gateway to a potential Wave 3 explosion.

If these levels break with conviction, the market could be entering a powerful expansion phase across both crypto and global equities. Until then, discipline and patience remain the edge.

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