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Alphabet (GOOGL): 5-Year Elliott Wave Deep Dive Since the COVID Crash Low
GOOGL has delivered one of the most structurally clean and technically rich long-term charts in the market since the COVID crash. What makes GOOGL particularly compelling isn’t just the magnitude of the move—but the clarity of its Elliott Wave progression, which now presents two distinct bullish interpretations, both pointing to continued upside.
By breaking down the price action from the COVID low at $51.85, we can map out a multi-year structure that may still be unfolding.
The Foundation: Wave 1 and Wave 2 (2020–2022)
The first major leg began during the pandemic panic:
Wave 1: $51.85 → $151
Wave 2: $151 → $83
This initial move set the stage for everything that followed. The rally from $51.85 to $151 represented a massive shift in sentiment—driven by digital acceleration, ad revenue resilience, and growth in cloud computing.
The subsequent correction to $83 was sharp but technically healthy. It retraced a large portion of Wave 1 without invalidating the trend, forming a textbook Wave 2 reset. This is where long-term bullish structures are often built.
Primary Bullish Count: Standard Wave 3 Progression
From the $83 low, GOOGL appears to have entered a larger Wave 3 cycle, with the following structure:
Wave 1 of 3: $83 → $207
Wave 2 of 3: $207 → $140
Wave 3 of 3: $140 → $349
Wave 4 of 3: $349 → $272
Wave 5 of 3 (Current): Now breaking out
This is a clean five-wave impulse within Wave 3, and it aligns well with classic Elliott Wave behavior.
Where We Are Now
The move from $272 upward appears to be the start of Wave 5 of Wave 3—the final leg of this intermediate structure.
Using standard projections:
Wave 5 target: $430–$440 range
This would complete the full Wave 3 sequence from the $83 base and represent a logical extension based on prior wave relationships.
Alternate Bullish Count: 1-2-1-2 Setup (Explosive Scenario)
While the standard count is already bullish, there’s a more aggressive interpretation that suggests GOOGL could be setting up for a much larger move.
In this alternate count:
Wave 1: $83 → $207
Wave 2: $207 → $140
Wave 1 (nested): $140 → $349
Wave 2 (nested): $349 → $273
This creates a 1-2, 1-2 structure, which is one of the most powerful setups in Elliott Wave theory.
Why This Matters
A 1-2-1-2 setup means the market is stacking momentum across multiple degrees. Instead of already being deep into Wave 3, it suggests that:
The market is just entering Wave 3 of Wave 3
The most explosive phase has not even begun yet
Massive Upside Potential: Wave 3 of 3 Targets
If the alternate count is correct, the current breakout from the $273 region is the beginning of a Wave 3 of Wave 3 expansion.
Using Fibonacci extension from the broader structure:
Measured Wave 1: $83 → $349
Wave 3 (1.618 extension): $700–$705
This is not a minor extension—it represents a doubling from current levels and reflects the kind of move typically seen in major tech leaders during strong cycles.
Comparing the Two Scenarios
Scenario 1: Standard Wave 5 of 3
Target: $430–$440
Represents completion of the current Wave 3 cycle
Suggests a potential Wave 4 correction afterward
Scenario 2: 1-2-1-2 Leading to Wave 3 of 3
Target: $700–$705
Indicates early-stage expansion
Implies significantly more upside ahead
The key difference is timing. The first scenario suggests we are late in the move. The second suggests we are early in the most powerful phase.
How to Tell Which Scenario Is Playing Out
The market will reveal the correct count through behavior:
Signs of Scenario 1 (Wave 5)
Slower, grinding move higher
Increased volatility near $430–$440
Signs of exhaustion (divergence, failed breakouts)
Signs of Scenario 2 (Wave 3 of 3)
Strong, impulsive breakout with acceleration
Minimal pullbacks
Rapid expansion through resistance levels
Momentum increasing, not fading
If GOOGL begins to move quickly through the $400s without hesitation, it would strongly favor the 1-2-1-2 bullish scenario.
Key Levels to Watch
$273: Critical support (Wave 2 low in alternate count)
$349: Prior high, now key breakout confirmation
$430–$440: First major resistance zone
$700+: Long-term extension target (if Wave 3 of 3 confirms)
Holding above $273 is essential for maintaining both bullish structures.
Fundamental Alignment
What makes this setup even more compelling is that GOOGL’s fundamentals support a long-term bullish thesis:
Dominance in digital advertising
Expansion in AI and cloud infrastructure
Integration of AI across search, products, and enterprise tools
These factors provide the fundamental fuel that often accompanies large Wave 3 expansions.
Market Psychology Across the 5-Year Cycle
2020 (Wave 1): Panic to recovery
2022 (Wave 2): Fear and uncertainty
2023–2025 (Wave 3): Recognition and growth
Now: Potential transition into acceleration phase
If the alternate count is correct, the market is shifting from recognition to expansion, where price moves faster and participation broadens.
Final Take
GOOGL’s 5-year chart presents a rare combination of clarity and opportunity.
The standard count points to a Wave 5 target in the $430–$440 range, completing a multi-year Wave 3 structure.
But the alternate 1-2-1-2 scenario suggests something far more powerful: the beginning of a Wave 3 of Wave 3, with upside potential extending toward $700–$705.
The difference between the two comes down to momentum.
If the current breakout accelerates and holds, GOOGL may not just be finishing a move—it may be starting its most explosive phase yet.
The structure is there. The levels are defined. Now the market decides which path it takes.