NASDAQ futures may be on the verge of confirming a completed Elliott Wave fourth-wave correction after staging a violent reversal from the 25,701 low and now threatening a breakout to entirely new all-time highs. What initially appeared to be the beginning of a much deeper correction has rapidly transformed into a powerful recovery structure that could signal the next major impulsive advance is already beginning.
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The corrective structure developed as a classic ABC zigzag decline.
Wave A fell from 26,700 down to 26,098, producing a sharp 602-point decline that broke bullish momentum and triggered widespread liquidation across technology and semiconductor stocks. The market then staged a temporary rebound through Wave B, rallying from 26,098 to 26,461 before the final corrective leg resumed.
Using standard Elliott Wave symmetry, traders projected a likely Wave C termination target by measuring equality between Wave A and Wave C.
26461 - 602 = 25859
That produced a projected Wave C target near 25,859. A deeper extension scenario using a 1.618 Fibonacci relationship generated a lower downside projection near 25,487.
26461 - (602 \times 1.618) \approx 25487
At the same time, traders identified major structural support from the previous Wave 4 region near 25,730. In Elliott Wave analysis, prior fourth-wave support often acts as a critical reversal zone during subsequent corrections, especially when it overlaps with Fibonacci projections.
What happened next now appears extremely important.
NASDAQ futures ultimately bottomed near 25,701 — almost directly on top of the prior Wave 4 support level — before aggressively reversing higher. Rather than continuing toward the deeper 1.618 extension target, buyers stepped in almost immediately after the market slightly undercut support.
That behavior closely resembles a classic liquidity sweep and capitulation reversal:
Fibonacci equality target nearby
prior Wave 4 support nearby
slight breakdown beneath support
immediate aggressive reversal afterward
Those conditions frequently appear near the end of corrective Wave C declines rather than the beginning of larger bear markets.
Since bottoming at 25,701, the market has staged a massive recovery rally that now appears to be accelerating. Futures are reportedly gapping up roughly 410 points heading into Tuesday’s session, and if current pricing holds into the open, NASDAQ futures would break above the prior all-time high near 29,661.
That development could become extremely significant from an Elliott Wave perspective.
A confirmed breakout above all-time highs following a completed fourth-wave correction would strongly support the idea that the recent decline was not the beginning of a larger bear market — but instead a standard Wave 4 reset within a continuing secular bull trend.
If that interpretation is correct, the market may now be entering Wave 5.
Using standard Elliott Wave extension projections, traders are now estimating a minimum fifth-wave target near 32,000–32,200.
\text{Minimum Wave 5 target} \approx 32000-32200
That projection reflects the possibility that the recent correction fully reset sentiment and momentum before the next impulsive phase higher begins.
Several important bullish conditions are now aligning simultaneously:
Wave C likely completed near 25,701
Previous Wave 4 support near 25,730 held successfully
Fibonacci symmetry cluster triggered reversal buying
Massive rally emerged immediately from the lows
Futures are now threatening all-time highs
Semiconductor and AI-related stocks are regaining leadership
The broader market backdrop also continues supporting bullish momentum. Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, semiconductor demand, cloud computing expansion, and institutional concentration into large-cap technology remain among the strongest themes driving equity markets. Companies such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom continue acting as major leadership pillars for the NASDAQ.
Psychologically, the recent correction may have accomplished exactly what fourth waves are designed to do: shake out weak hands and reset excessive optimism before the larger trend resumes. During the decline into 25,701, fear expanded rapidly as traders began expecting a much deeper correction. Instead, the market stabilized almost exactly at major structural support and then exploded higher before most participants could reposition.
That sudden reversal from fear back into momentum is often characteristic of completed Wave 4 structures.
Still, confirmation remains essential. Traders will now closely watch whether NASDAQ futures can sustain the breakout above the previous all-time highs and continue building impulsive upside momentum. Strong breadth expansion, semiconductor leadership, and continued institutional participation would all strengthen the case that Wave 5 is now underway.
For now, however, the technical evidence increasingly supports the bullish interpretation. The market completed a sharp ABC correction directly into major support, reversed violently from the lows, and now appears ready to challenge new all-time highs once again.
If the breakout holds, the recent decline into 25,701 may ultimately be remembered not as the start of a bear market — but as the final capitulation phase before the next major Wave 5 advance toward the 32,000–32,200 region began.