Nov 6, 2024 - TSLA was 248, called 550-600 in a W3, hit 510! [From Medium]

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Tesla (TSLA) has been a notable underperformer among the “Magnificent 7” tech giants, lagging behind peers who have set fresh highs amid the broader market rally. Yet recent events, including the post-election surge following Trump’s victory, have invigorated the stock, pushing it as high as $290 intraday, signaling the potential for a pivotal breakout.

Currently, TSLA sits close to $300, which marks a critical level on the decade chart. This level is just below the peak of the B wave, a major resistance point from TSLA’s historical Elliott Wave structure. If TSLA can successfully break this level, it may set the stage for a broader rally that could take it toward the $350 mark, a key 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Let’s take a closer look at TSLA’s technical landscape and what a sustained rally could mean for its long-term outlook.

Tesla’s long-term Elliott Wave structure places the stock in a crucial spot, where it could either face resistance and enter a prolonged sideways correction or break through and attempt a larger move. TSLA’s recent rally up to $290 demonstrates the stock’s potential to regain its footing and overcome the B wave peak, a threshold it hasn’t reached since its previous highs.

Breaking $300 would be highly significant, not only because it surpasses this large B wave peak, but also because it sets up the next logical resistance level around $350. This 0.786 retracement level aligns with the broader market’s view that TSLA still has upside potential if the macro environment remains supportive. The $350 mark serves as a litmus test for the stock’s capacity to reclaim higher levels. Should Tesla breach this, it opens the door to further potential gains and raises the likelihood of a new wave cycle higher.

If Tesla can clear the $350 level, the long-term upside potential becomes even more promising. A sustained breakout above $350 would likely attract renewed buying interest, and the next key target would be the $400 to $420 range, near its previous all-time highs. Historically, breaking prior highs often leads to fresh waves of momentum, as investors eye potential for new record levels.

The ultimate upside target in a prolonged rally could see TSLA doubling from current levels, reaching $600. This aligns with a full Fibonacci extension of previous rally levels and represents a near-ideal Elliott Wave completion for a stock that has historically seen massive moves following breakout points.

From a technical standpoint, Tesla’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and momentum indicators are still far from overbought, suggesting the stock has room to run if buying pressure continues. Following the reset in RSI during Tesla’s recent consolidation, the indicator remains below the critical 70 threshold, which is often seen in more extended bull runs.

Given Tesla’s lagging performance compared to the other Magnificent 7 stocks, this provides a relative value advantage if the stock reclaims upward momentum. A break of $300 with sustained volume would signal a potential shift in sentiment, with many investors recognizing Tesla’s growth potential as both a leading electric vehicle manufacturer and technology innovator.

While the bullish case for Tesla is compelling, several risks remain. First, broader market volatility could impact Tesla’s trajectory, especially with macroeconomic headwinds or changing policies around electric vehicle incentives. Moreover, if Tesla struggles to break the $300 level, it may signal that the stock could remain range-bound, with resistance near the top of the B wave serving as a cap on short-term gains.

Tesla’s recent push to $290 following the election results suggests that momentum is shifting in its favor, with a potential breakout above $300 setting up the next critical resistance at $350. Should Tesla clear this level, a rally toward $400 or higher is feasible, with the long-term upside extending to $600 if market conditions align. Investors should closely monitor the $300 and $350 levels as key inflection points. If Tesla can establish itself above these thresholds, the stock could enter a new phase of growth, possibly leading to new all-time highs and solidifying its place in the long-term uptrend.