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NVDA Short-Term Elliott Wave Breakout

NVIDIA Corporation continues to show one of the strongest momentum structures in the market, and the recent breakout above 217 may have confirmed the beginning of a new impulsive Wave 3 advance.

The short-term structure currently appears to be:

  • Wave 1: 164 → 217

  • Wave 2: 217 → 194

  • Wave 3: now potentially underway after reclaiming and breaking above 217

That breakout is technically important because once a stock exceeds the Wave 1 high after a Wave 2 retracement, it often signals that bullish momentum is reaccelerating.

Using standard Elliott Wave Fibonacci extensions, the projected Wave 3 targets become:

Standard 1.618 Extension

194 + 1.618(217-164) \approx 280

This projects a potential Wave 3 target near 280.

Extended 2.618 Projection

194 + 2.618(217-164) \approx 333

That gives an aggressive upside target near 333 if momentum enters a full acceleration phase.

What makes this setup particularly notable is the character of NVDA’s recent price action. Instead of collapsing after the initial rally to 217, the stock only retraced back to 194 before buyers stepped back in aggressively. That relatively shallow Wave 2 correction often reflects underlying institutional demand and strong trend persistence.

The reclaim of 217 now potentially flips prior resistance into support. If NVDA can consolidate above that level and continue building higher lows, traders will likely begin targeting the larger Fibonacci extensions quickly.

Momentum names like NVDA also tend to experience “recognition phases” during Wave 3 advances. Early buyers accumulate during Wave 1, skeptics emerge during Wave 2, and then Wave 3 becomes the stage where broader market participation rushes in as the breakout becomes obvious.

That is where price expansions can become violent.

A sustained move toward the 280 zone would represent a classic 1.618 Wave 3 extension, while a push toward 333 would signal a much stronger momentum environment with elevated speculative participation.

Technically, the bullish structure remains intact as long as NVDA continues holding above the Wave 2 low near 194. A break below that level would invalidate the current short-term impulsive setup and suggest the rally needs additional consolidation.

For now though, the breakout above 217 keeps the short-term trend firmly bullish and suggests the market may be entering the strongest portion of the current Elliott Wave sequence.

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