NVIDIA (NVDA) is developing an interesting Elliott Wave structure across both the long-term and short-term timeframes. The long-term count suggests that NVDA could be in the early stages of a much larger Wave 3 advance toward 353, based on a 1.618 Fibonacci projection. At the same time, the short-term structure points toward a nearer-term Wave 3 target of 238–240.

The two counts provide a useful roadmap because the short-term structure can potentially represent an internal component of the much larger long-term bullish sequence.

The long-term count is:

Wave 1: 86 → 188

Wave 2: 188 → 164

Wave 3 target: 353 at 1.618

The short-term count is:

Wave 1: 216 → 225

Wave 2: 225 → 223

Wave 3 target: 238–240

The key distinction is timeframe. The 238–240 objective represents the nearer-term structure, while 353 represents the much larger long-term Wave 3 projection.

The larger Elliott Wave structure begins with a proposed Wave 1 advance from 86 to 188.

That represents a gain of 102 points, creating the foundation for the larger bullish sequence.

Wave 1 is the first major impulsive movement in a potential five-wave structure. Once that initial advance is completed, the market typically enters a corrective phase before beginning another impulsive wave.

For NVDA, the proposed Wave 1 high occurred at 188.

The stock subsequently declined to 164, producing the proposed Wave 2 correction.

The proposed Wave 2 correction moved from 188 to 164, a decline of 24 points.

Compared with the 102-point Wave 1 advance, this represents a relatively contained correction.

That is important because the current count interprets the decline as a corrective reset rather than a reversal of the larger bullish structure.

The proposed Wave 2 low at 164 remains well above the original 86 Wave 1 starting point.

If 164 represents the completed Wave 2 low, NVDA could therefore be positioned for a much larger Wave 3.

That is where the 353 target becomes important.

The long-term Wave 3 projection is 353, based on a potential 1.618 Fibonacci relationship.

The 1.618 ratio is one of the most important Fibonacci relationships used in Elliott Wave analysis. It is frequently used to estimate potential Wave 3 extensions because Wave 3 can become substantially larger than Wave 1.

The initial Wave 1 moved from 86 to 188, covering 102 points.

Applying the proposed 1.618 relationship to that initial advance produces the current long-term target of approximately 353 when projected from the proposed Wave 2 low.

That creates a significant upside objective relative to the previous 188 high.

If the current structure is correct, the move toward 353 would represent a much larger impulsive phase than the initial Wave 1.

Wave 3 would not necessarily travel directly toward that target. There can be numerous smaller corrections and internal waves along the way.

The important consideration is whether the larger structure continues to produce bullish price action after the proposed 164 Wave 2 low.

Wave 3 is often considered the strongest and most dynamic portion of an Elliott Wave impulse.

During Wave 1, the market may still be uncertain about the emerging trend. The subsequent Wave 2 correction can cause some participants to believe the initial rally has ended.

Once the market begins breaking higher again, however, momentum can accelerate.

For NVDA, the proposed structure suggests that the decline from 188 to 164 may have created that reset.

If buyers regain control and the stock continues advancing, the market could gradually transition into the larger Wave 3 projected toward 353.

The significance of the 353 target is therefore not simply that it is a higher price. It represents the possibility that NVDA is entering a substantially larger impulsive phase following the completion of the Wave 2 correction.

The short-term structure provides a much closer-term view.

The proposed short-term Wave 1 advances from 216 to 225.

That represents a gain of 9 points.

Following that advance, NVDA pulled back from 225 to 223, producing the proposed short-term Wave 2.

This correction is extremely shallow.

The decline from 225 to 223 represents only 2 points, suggesting that buyers may have retained significant control over the short-term structure.

If 223 represents the completed short-term Wave 2, the next phase would be Wave 3.

The projected short-term target is 238–240.

The proposed short-term Wave 3 target is 238–240.

The sequence is:

Wave 1: 216 → 225

Wave 2: 225 → 223

Wave 3 target: 238–240

The most notable feature is again the shallow correction.

The market advanced from 216 to 225, pulled back only to 223, and is now positioned to potentially make another higher high.

If the stock moves through 225, that would provide important confirmation that the proposed short-term Wave 2 correction has ended.

A sustained move above 225 would establish a new short-term high and open the path toward the 238–240 target zone.

The short-term and long-term counts should not be viewed as competing interpretations.

They can potentially exist simultaneously.

The long-term structure says:

86 → 188: Wave 1

188 → 164: Wave 2

353: Wave 3 target

The short-term structure says:

216 → 225: Wave 1

225 → 223: Wave 2

238–240: Wave 3 target

The shorter-term move can therefore represent an internal component of the larger bullish structure.

If NVDA successfully advances toward 238–240, it would demonstrate that the short-term impulse is developing.

If that strength continues beyond the short-term target and evolves into larger impulsive waves, it could contribute to the larger long-term Wave 3 structure.

This is one of the useful aspects of Elliott Wave analysis: a large wave can contain smaller waves that themselves have their own five-wave structures.

The short-term Wave 1 high at 225 is the immediate structural level to watch.

NVDA currently has a proposed Wave 2 low at 223.

A move above 225 would confirm that the stock has exceeded the previous short-term Wave 1 high.

That would strengthen the interpretation that the correction from 225 to 223 has ended.

Once above 225, the market could begin targeting the 238–240 zone.

The move would therefore progress through several stages:

223 holds as the proposed short-term Wave 2 low.

225 breaks.

NVDA establishes a new short-term high.

238–240 becomes the Wave 3 target zone.

This short-term progression can provide useful evidence about the larger bullish structure.

While 225 is important in the short-term structure, 164 remains the key reference point for the larger count.

The long-term bullish scenario assumes that 164 completed Wave 2.

As long as the larger structure continues to behave as expected following that low, the 353 projection remains the long-term objective.

The distance between 164 and 353 represents the potential scale of the next major impulsive phase.

That is why the long-term count is considerably more significant than the short-term 238–240 projection.

The short-term target is a milestone.

The 353 target is the larger structural objective.

The proposed long-term target is based on a 1.618 Fibonacci relationship.

Fibonacci analysis is particularly useful when projecting Elliott Wave targets because it provides a mathematical framework for estimating the relative size of different waves.

Here, Wave 1 traveled from 86 to 188, a move of 102 points.

The proposed Wave 2 then declined to 164.

A 1.618 extension of the Wave 1 length projected from the Wave 2 low produces the approximate 353 target.

This creates a logical relationship between the original impulse, the corrective phase, and the projected next impulse.

The target is conditional, however.

If the structure changes, the projection would need to change with it.

The current Elliott Wave analysis can be summarized through two distinct timeframes.

Wave 1: 86 → 188

Wave 2: 188 → 164

Wave 3: 353

Fibonacci relationship: 1.618

Wave 1: 216 → 225

Wave 2: 225 → 223

Wave 3: 238–240

These two structures provide a layered bullish roadmap.

The short-term count is looking for continued strength above 225, with 238–240 as the next projected target.

The long-term count identifies 164 as the proposed Wave 2 low and 353 as the larger Wave 3 objective.

NVDA is presenting a potentially bullish Elliott Wave structure on both the long-term and short-term timeframes.

The long-term count identifies Wave 1 from 86 to 188, followed by Wave 2 from 188 to 164. If that Wave 2 low remains intact, the proposed Wave 3 target is 353, based on a 1.618 Fibonacci projection.

The short-term count identifies Wave 1 from 216 to 225, followed by a very shallow Wave 2 correction to 223. If NVDA breaks above 225, the proposed short-term Wave 3 target is 238–240.

The key numbers are:

Long-term Wave 1: 86 → 188

Long-term Wave 2: 188 → 164

Long-term Wave 3 target: 353

Fibonacci projection: 1.618

Short-term Wave 1: 216 → 225

Short-term Wave 2: 225 → 223

Short-term Wave 3 target: 238–240

The immediate test is 225. A breakout above that level would strengthen the short-term Wave 3 interpretation and put 238–240 into focus.

If the larger bullish structure continues to develop, the short-term advance could become part of a much larger Wave 3 that ultimately targets 353.

The key idea is that the short-term and long-term counts are potentially working together: 223 is the short-term structural low, 225 is the immediate breakout level, 238–240 is the nearer-term target, and 353 remains the major long-term Elliott Wave objective based on the 1.618 projection.