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SHW (Sherwin-Williams) Elliott Wave Structure: Positioning for a Potential Wave 3 Expansion
Sherwin-Williams has developed one of the cleaner long-term Elliott Wave structures in the industrial and materials space, with price action unfolding in a highly symmetrical impulsive sequence that now appears to be transitioning into a powerful third wave phase.
Wave 1 Expansion: Foundation of the Trend
The primary impulsive structure began with a significant advance from approximately 15 to 354, marking a full-blown Wave 1 expansion. This move represents the initial discovery phase of the long-term trend, where institutional positioning typically begins to accumulate before broader market recognition.
A move of this magnitude is important in Elliott Wave terms because it sets the full structural range for future Fibonacci projections. In SHW’s case, the Wave 1 extension from 15 → 354 created a high-volatility baseline that now defines the roadmap for both Wave 3 and Wave 5 targets.
Wave 2 Correction: Deep but Controlled Retracement
Following that aggressive expansion, SHW entered a corrective phase labeled Wave 2, retracing from 354 down to 197. This decline represents a substantial correction in percentage terms, but structurally it remains healthy within Elliott Wave guidelines.
Wave 2 corrections often shake out late participants and reset positioning without invalidating the larger bullish cycle. The depth of this retracement—approaching the prior structural base—suggests a strong liquidation of excess positioning, which typically strengthens the next impulsive phase.
Importantly, the retracement did not break the original structural integrity of the Wave 1 base, preserving the bullish cycle framework.
Transition Into Wave 3: The Acceleration Zone
SHW has now entered a Wave 3 development phase, which is historically the most powerful and extended portion of any Elliott Wave sequence. Wave 3 is typically characterized by:
Strong institutional participation
Momentum expansion
Breakouts above prior resistance zones
Rapid Fibonacci extension behavior
In SHW’s case, the first key technical trigger is a break above 375 or alternatively a move into the 0.786 retracement level of the Wave 2 decline. Both levels act as confirmation that the correction has fully resolved and the next impulsive leg is underway.
Once that breakout condition is met, the structure opens into full Fibonacci expansion territory.
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Wave 3 Targets: Fibonacci Extension Mapping
Using the Wave 1 range (15 to 354) as the projection anchor, Fibonacci extension targets for Wave 3 become highly meaningful.
The primary projected levels are:
1.618 extension target: ~747
2.618 extension target: ~1087
These levels are derived from standard Elliott Wave Fibonacci relationships where Wave 3 often equals or exceeds 1.618 times the magnitude of Wave 1, especially in strong secular trends.
A move toward 747 would represent a textbook Wave 3 completion zone under normal extension behavior. However, in stronger macro-driven cycles—particularly those fueled by sector-wide expansion or inflationary pricing environments—Wave 3 frequently extends into 2.618 territory, which would place SHW in the region of ~1087.
This is not speculative randomness; it reflects historical behavior in strong impulsive equities where earnings expansion, pricing power, and institutional allocation converge.
Structural Interpretation: Why This Setup Matters
The most important feature of SHW’s current structure is not just the upside targets—it is the clean separation between impulse and correction.
Wave 1 established vertical discovery
Wave 2 reset positioning efficiently
Wave 3 is now positioned for expansion acceleration
This is the ideal Elliott Wave sequence traders look for: a strong impulsive first leg, a controlled retracement, and a breakout into expansion territory.
The fact that SHW has held its structural integrity through the correction suggests that larger institutional participants did not exit the trend but instead likely repositioned.
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What Confirms Full Wave 3 Activation
To validate continuation into higher Fibonacci targets, price behavior must confirm:
Sustained acceptance above 375
Expansion beyond prior consolidation zones
Momentum continuation without deep retracement back into Wave 2 territory
Increasing volume on breakout structure
If these conditions align, SHW transitions from early Wave 3 development into full momentum acceleration.
Conclusion: High-Probability Expansion Phase
SHW is currently in a technically significant position where a completed Wave 2 correction is giving way to a potentially powerful Wave 3 expansion.
With Fibonacci projections targeting ~747 (1.618) and ~1087 (2.618), the structure represents a high-range asymmetry setup—where downside is limited by completed correction structure, while upside remains mathematically expansive if momentum confirms.
The key inflection remains simple: a sustained breakout above 375 confirms that SHW is no longer consolidating, but accelerating into its next major impulsive phase.



