TXN on .786 breakout = 600-650

Texas Instruments (TXN) is approaching a critical technical decision point within its larger Elliott Wave structure. The stock has completed a proposed Wave 1 advance from 150 to 334, followed by a proposed Wave 2 correction from 334 to 265. If the bullish count is correct, TXN could now be preparing for the next major impulsive phase, with a projected Wave 3 target of 600–650.

However, the setup depends on two extremely important levels. The first is the upside breakout level at 319, which represents the key .786 Fibonacci breakout level. A decisive move through 319 would provide major confirmation that the correction may be complete and that Wave 3 is beginning. The second is 265 support, which represents the proposed Wave 2 low. TXN must hold 265. If the stock breaks below that level, this specific Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

That creates a clear technical roadmap with a defined confirmation level, a defined invalidation level, and a larger upside target.

The proposed Elliott Wave structure begins with a powerful Wave 1 rally from 150 to 334. That advance covered approximately 184 points, establishing the first major impulsive leg of the larger bullish sequence.

Wave 1 is important because it provides the foundation for the entire Elliott Wave count. In the early stages of a new bullish cycle, the initial advance is often not universally recognized as the beginning of a larger trend. Market participants may view it as a temporary recovery, while others may remain skeptical that the stock can sustain the move.

But once a significant advance has developed, the market has established the first leg necessary for a potential five-wave impulse.

For TXN, the move from 150 to 334 serves as that initial structure.

The size of the Wave 1 advance also provides important context for the potential magnitude of future waves. Elliott Wave analysis examines the relationship between the first impulse, the following correction, and the possible expansion that can occur during Wave 3.

After reaching 334, however, TXN entered a significant pullback.

The decline from 334 to 265 represents the proposed Wave 2 correction. TXN gave back approximately 69 points during that decline, creating the pullback that the current bullish count identifies as the second wave of the larger sequence.

Wave 2 corrections can be difficult to interpret in real time. After a strong Wave 1 advance, a stock can suddenly experience a sharp decline that creates doubt about whether the larger bullish trend remains intact.

That is why the low at 265 is so important.

Under this Elliott Wave count, 265 is the Wave 2 low and the structural support that must hold. The bullish interpretation is built on the assumption that the correction ended at that level and that the market is now attempting to begin the next impulsive advance.

If TXN remains above 265, the proposed count remains viable.

If TXN breaks below 265, this particular count is invalidated.

That does not necessarily mean TXN can never move higher again. It simply means that the specific interpretation of Wave 1 from 150 to 334 followed by a completed Wave 2 at 265 would no longer be valid. The market would need to be reevaluated and a different Elliott Wave structure considered.

This distinction is critical.

Technical analysis should not treat a target as an unconditional prediction. A well-defined wave count includes both the upside roadmap and the point at which the interpretation is proven wrong.

For TXN, that invalidation point is clear:

Must hold support: 265

Break below 265: This Elliott Wave count is invalidated

As long as 265 remains intact, the focus can remain on the next major upside trigger.

The most important bullish confirmation level in the current setup is 319.

According to this count, 319 represents the critical .786 Fibonacci breakout level. A move through this area would provide important evidence that TXN has recovered enough of the Wave 2 decline to transition from a corrective phase into a new impulsive advance.

The distinction between simply bouncing and actually breaking out is important.

A stock can rally sharply from a low and still remain trapped within a broader corrective structure. The market must reclaim key resistance levels before the bullish case receives stronger confirmation.

That is why 319 is the trigger.

A decisive break above 319 would strengthen the argument that the proposed Wave 2 correction ended at 265 and that TXN is entering Wave 3.

The roadmap is therefore:

Wave 1: 150 → 334

Wave 2: 334 → 265

Must hold: 265

Key .786 breakout: 319

Potential Wave 3 target: 600–650

The closer TXN gets to 319, the more important the price action becomes. A clean breakout followed by sustained trading above the level would be much more significant than a temporary move above resistance that immediately reverses.

The strongest bullish scenario would involve TXN breaking 319, holding the breakout, and continuing to establish higher highs and higher lows.

That would place the previous 334 Wave 1 high directly in focus.

If TXN successfully breaks 319, the next important technical level is the prior high at 334.

The 334 level represents the peak of the proposed Wave 1 advance. A move above it would be another major confirmation because TXN would have recovered the entire decline from the Wave 1 high to the Wave 2 low.

A decisive breakout above 334 would demonstrate that the market is no longer simply recovering inside the previous decline. It would establish a new high and strengthen the case that the next impulsive wave is underway.

From there, the larger Wave 3 projection toward 600–650 becomes increasingly important.

The proposed Wave 3 target is 600–650.

This represents the larger bullish objective if the market confirms the current Elliott Wave structure. Wave 3 is frequently the strongest and most sustained portion of a five-wave impulse. It is the phase where the trend can accelerate as more participants recognize that the prior correction has ended.

For TXN, a fully developed Wave 3 would represent a major advance from the 265 Wave 2 low.

The target zone of 600–650 should not be interpreted as a guarantee or as a prediction that TXN will move there in a straight line. Even a powerful Wave 3 can include substantial internal volatility.

A larger Elliott Wave advance normally contains smaller waves within the broader structure. TXN could experience smaller rallies, pullbacks, consolidations, and renewed breakouts while continuing to progress toward the larger target.

The important question is whether the market continues to confirm the structure step by step.

The first confirmation is 319.

The next major confirmation is 334.

If TXN clears those levels while continuing to hold above 265, the bullish Wave 3 count would become significantly stronger.

It can be tempting to focus entirely on the upside target of 600–650, but the 265 support level is equally important because it defines the risk to the current interpretation.

Without a clear invalidation level, Elliott Wave analysis can become overly flexible. A count can simply be changed every time the market moves against it. But a disciplined approach requires recognizing when the market has broken the assumptions behind a particular scenario.

In this case, the assumption is that 265 completed Wave 2.

If TXN falls below 265, then that assumption is wrong.

The market may still be completing a larger correction. The low may not have been the final Wave 2 bottom. Or the entire wave structure may need to be counted differently.

That is why the level is non-negotiable for this specific count.

TXN must hold 265 support.

As long as the stock remains above that level, the proposed Wave 2 low remains intact and the bullish roadmap toward 319, 334, and eventually 600–650 remains viable.

But if 265 breaks to the downside, this count is invalidated and the analysis must be reassessed.

The current TXN setup can be reduced to a series of important levels.

The larger bullish structure begins with the proposed Wave 1 advance from 150 to 334.

The market then corrected in the proposed Wave 2 from 334 to 265.

The key question now is whether the correction has ended.

The first major answer comes at 319, the proposed .786 Fibonacci breakout level.

If TXN breaks 319, the bullish Wave 3 interpretation receives its first major confirmation.

The previous 334 high then becomes the next major resistance level.

A breakout above 334 would strengthen the argument that the market has transitioned into a new impulsive phase.

The larger upside objective is then 600–650, the projected Wave 3 target zone.

But throughout the entire process, 265 remains the line that must hold.

The complete roadmap is:

Wave 1: 150 → 334

Wave 2: 334 → 265

Critical support: 265

Below 265: This count is invalidated

Key .786 breakout: 319

Next major resistance: 334

Potential Wave 3 target: 600–650

TXN is approaching a major Elliott Wave decision point.

The proposed count identifies a completed Wave 1 rally from 150 to 334, followed by a Wave 2 correction to 265. If 265 remains intact and TXN can break the critical 319 .786 Fibonacci level, the market could be transitioning into a much larger Wave 3.

The projected Wave 3 target is 600–650.

The setup is conditional, and the conditions are exceptionally clear. TXN must hold 265 support. If that level breaks, the current count is invalidated and the structure must be reevaluated.

But if 265 holds and 319 breaks to the upside, the technical picture could shift dramatically. A move through 319 would be the first major confirmation, while a subsequent breakout above 334 would provide additional evidence that the correction has ended.

For now, the most important numbers are:

Support that must hold: 265

Invalidation below: 265

.786 breakout trigger: 319

Previous Wave 1 high: 334

Wave 3 target: 600–650

If TXN follows this Elliott Wave roadmap, the break above 319 could be the signal that the next major advance has begun. But the entire bullish count rests on one critical foundation: 265 must hold.