Why I’m holding TQQQ and GLL into the fire

Holding Through Pressure: Defined Levels on Gold and the S&P 500

I’m currently positioned short gold via 3,000 shares of GLL and long the S&P 500 through 600 shares of UPRO. At the moment, I’m down on both positions. That’s never comfortable—but discomfort alone is not a signal. Structure is. And structurally, both positions remain aligned with my higher-timeframe roadmap.

Let’s start with gold.

Gold has been in a powerful advance, driven by a combination of geopolitical anxiety, inflation narratives, and a heavily crowded long trade. However, when viewed on a long-term chart, this rally is beginning to display classic late-stage characteristics: steep slope, emotional momentum, and diminishing marginal upside despite increasingly bullish sentiment.

On the long-term projection, 4710 represents the key terminal target for gold. This level is derived from multi-year extensions and cycle projections and marks an area where prior advances historically exhaust. My working thesis is that gold and GLL complete a topping process near 4710 within the next week.

That timing window matters. Major tops tend to form quickly once they reach their terminal zone. Price often looks strongest right before it fails, which is why these moments feel the worst psychologically. Volatility increases, headlines turn uniformly bullish, and price action becomes erratic rather than efficient.

Because of that, I’m staying with the position despite current drawdown. A brief overshoot or intraday spike does not invalidate the setup. What would change the picture is sustained acceleration and acceptance well beyond the terminal zone—but that has not occurred.

If gold rolls over from this area, the first objective would be a sharp corrective move, potentially retracing a meaningful portion of the prior advance. Once momentum shifts, downside in gold tends to unfold faster than most expect, particularly when positioning is crowded.

Now let’s turn to equities.

The S&P 500 has recently sold off and may open on a gap down, which has understandably rattled sentiment. However, gap-down opens are often where emotional selling peaks, not where trends end. In strong or transitioning markets, weakness at the open frequently creates opportunity rather than confirmation of further downside.

For that reason, I’m staying long UPRO. If the S&P can be bought near the open and stabilize rather than cascade lower, that behavior would be consistent with a corrective pullback rather than the start of a larger bearish phase. Markets rarely reward waiting for clarity—by the time things “feel safe,” the move is often already underway.

The key distinction here is between corrective weakness and impulsive breakdown. As long as downside action remains overlapping, choppy, and emotionally driven, the bullish structure remains viable.

The common thread in both positions is discipline. Being down does not mean being wrong. Markets routinely push traders into maximum discomfort right before resolving in the expected direction. Gold appears to be pressing into a long-term exhaustion zone near 4710, while equities are testing resolve at levels where fear often creates opportunity.

The next several sessions should be decisive. If gold tops as projected and equities absorb the gap-down selling, the current pressure will simply be the cost of positioning early—often the price required to catch major turns.